Oligarchy (Government by the few)

It has been almost a year since the war on terrorists began in Afghanistan. U.S. forces have countless bases and operate in every corner of the country, yet they have not been able to bring the war on terrorism to conclusion because they do not understand the delicate balance and complexity of tribal affiliations within the country.

The U.S. will not achieve success in Afghanistan unless they embrace the majority of the population in that country – and over 60% of that population is Pashtun. The U. S. must realize that minorities will not govern the Pashtun tribes, of which there are about several dozen. Masood’s people who have assumed the bulk of key governmental positions are representative of a small population that is less than 5% of the total. They come from a single, small district and cannot be expected to understand the needs and complex politics of the Pashtun tribes, nor can they control 30 provinces by themselves without U. S. support.

Lets face it. U. S. forces do not have access to any credible intelligence on the ground because the people providing the information are as unknowledgeable of the inner workings of the Pashtun territories as any American who hops off the plane for the first time. Additionally, their motivations are not so much as to eliminate a Taliban challenge as to eliminate any current or future challenge to their authority. The current government of Fahim (minister of Defense) and Dr. Abdullah (minister of Foreign Affairs) feeds the U. S. forces faulty information to reduce the numbers of influential Pashtuns who could challenge their positions of authority. First, there was the hit on the caravan of the vehicle’s that was on its way to Kabul to welcome Mr. Karzai. There never has been any credible evidence that this was anything but a group of influential Pashtuns on their way to celebrate Karzai’s inauguration. Then, there was the hit on the wedding party. What gives? When will U. S. realize that the current regime of Fahim and Abdullah is trying to get rid of their enemies by providing false information to U. S. armed forces? They are making U. S. look foolish. This is not an attack on Fahim and Abdullah but advice to U. S. to watch out for false information that puts U.S. personnel in grave danger. We will soon lose our popularity in that country and will have armed uprisings against us. They will not be Taliban or AQ but the relatives of the Pashtuns that we bomb based upon this often deliberately faulty intelligence.

One of the important questions being asked is why is the U. S. alienating the Pashtuns? Is anyone naïve enough to believe that all Pashtuns are really AQ and/or Taliban? One can speculate that when U. S. decided to go to Afghanistan they picked the Northern Alliance because it was an identifiable group of a large enough size to challenge the AQ/Taliban regime then in control in Kabul and ethnically and ideologically distinct enough from the enemy to make it easier to generate and control an effective assault on the capitol and takeover of the government. However, we should not forget that the same group the U.S. forces is working with now has historically worked with the Russians and that in the long term, their alliance will revert to those who are physically closest to them. While it may have made sense when it all started, things went wrong when the Northern Alliance’s forces entered Kabul without the authorization from the U. S. government. That should have been a good indicator that we are dealing with a rogue group of people who will do what they want and not what should be done. As an aside, the Russians posted false stories of high U.S. casualties in April on news sites and are now in the process of obtaining agreements with the current Afghan leadership for access to Afghan oil reserves. We should take this as a harbinger of future directions the current Afghan government will be taking.

Why is it that all of the victims of the current war in Afghanistan are Pashtuns and why is it that the current intelligence service in Afghanistan is not being held responsible for their mistakes? Haji Qadeer was executed in Kabul yet no one is in custody, why? Has USA abandoned the Pashtuns completely? If yes, then this is the biggest strategic mistake we will ever make. All we have to do is to look at the history and see what these people have accomplished. These (the Pashtuns) are the people who can seal the borders and prevent the AQ from escaping. Furthermore, the Pashtuns will never accede to a strong Russian presence in the country while the Northern Alliance will welcome them with open arms as they have done in the past and are even doing now. Strategically, the U.S. stands to benefit more both in the short and long term from strengthening alliances with the Pashtuns and assisting them in regaining their fair share of power in the government of Afghanistan.

AR